Methodology

How the Bullion Score works

The Bullion Score is a single daily number, 0 to 100, describing how favorable the macro environment is for holders of physical gold and silver. It is computed deterministically from the twelve factors below — the same inputs always produce the same score. No model output is hidden, smoothed, or overridden by opinion.

The score describes conditions. It is not a prediction of price, and it never tells you what to buy or sell.

The twelve factors

FactorWeightCadenceSourceStatus
Real interest rates15DailyFRED DFII10Live
Central bank buying12MonthlyWorld Gold CouncilComing online
US Dollar strength12DailyFRED DTWEXBGSLive
Gold price trend10DailyGold futures GC=FLive
ETF flows10DailyGLD holdingsComing online
Inflation expectations8DailyFRED T10YIELive
Market sentiment8WeeklyCFTC COTComing online
Silver trend6DailySilver futures SI=FLive
Gold/Silver ratio6DailyDerivedLive
Geopolitical risk6MonthlyGPR IndexComing online
Mining supply4QuarterlyWGC / Metals FocusComing online
Industrial silver demand3MonthlyS&P Global PMIComing online

Weights sum to 100 across the full model. While factors are still coming online, the weights of live factors are renormalized to 100 — the score never pretends to know what it doesn't.

Principles we don't bend

Honest cadence. Sources update at different speeds — daily rates, monthly central-bank data, quarterly mine supply. Every factor shows its own as-of date. Staleness is displayed, never disguised.

Deterministic scoring. Each factor is normalized against its own history, mapped to a 0–100 subscore, and contributes its weight. The arithmetic is simple on purpose: transparency beats complexity.

Environment, not advice. A high score means conditions have historically been supportive for precious metals. It is not a buy signal, and no content on this site is investment advice.

Published changes. If weights or methods change, the change and its reasoning are published here. The score you see is never silently redefined.

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